You are in the company of Roger Warren Evans, Welsh socialist lawyer and company director, on a journey to work out a new socialist order capable of generating equality and freedom for the world.  Nothing less will do.
   

 

 

 



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Multiple Differential Uncertainty


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Week 39
Sunday
28 September 2003


New Celtic Fringe

Great weekend last week in Kinsale, County Cork - my community and home-town of Mumbles is "twinned" with the community of Kinsale - I believe in the logic of communal twinning, for a thousand reasons - but now, thanks to Air Wales, it took just 60 minutes to fly back from Cork to Swansea on Sunday afternoon. 

This adds a civilised new dimension to the relationship between Wales and Ireland.  My earnest hope is that the current mayhem about cheap flights within Europe will not threaten these new links.


Generating Jargon

My hobby is jargon spotting.  The English language is constantly changing, and I enjoy the chase.  American bankers, protesting at the harshness of the settlement terms recently imposed by the Argentinian Government after the recent "Crash", protested - "They had the biggest-ever default, now they're restructuring with the biggest-ever haircut!"  It means the capital write-off which Government Bondholders will have to take, wiped off the value of their lending...

But jargon creation is not an American preserve, good as they are at the game.  A Labour Party spokesman, apologising for the late despatch of Conference Security Passes for Bournemouth, said "We-re expecting them to doormat tomorrow..."


Outrageous Intimidation

The Recording Industry Association of America is guilty of the most awful intimidation, and extortion. The RIAA brought a legal action against 12 year-old Brianna LaHara, who had used shareware to download, free of charge, several hundred popular songs from the Internet.  And they threatened her with a damages claim of $150,000 per tune!  Her terrified mother agreed to pay $2,000 – which the family could ill-afford – in full and final settlement. 

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The case for
"Real" Socialism

The collapse of the Cancun trade talks was a success for, among others, Subcomandante Marcos and the Mexican Zapatistas.  His ringing denunciation of capitalist globalisation was fittingly published in The Guardian.  But is there really a comprehensive "socialist" alternative?  I do not believe there is...


Barefoot Advocates

You are invited to join the Launch public meeting in Swansea of the new Public Advocate para-legal profession - at the Mumbles village Hall at 11.00 am on Saturday 22 November 2003Come and enjoy a day at the seaside!  From little acorns, an' all that jazz... And if you support us, but cannot come -

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Armageddon!
Confirmation Deferred

By way of footnote, I should record that both the New York and London Tube power failures were caused by robots over-reacting to events - and in the London case, triggered by the wrongful installation of a 1 amp, rather than a 5 amp, fuse... While we all reached for our "end of civilisation" scripts, the explanation was far more mundane, and systemically less destructive. 

But I do think that public reaction showed, in both cases, a growing collective anxiety about the support systems of advanced Western economies.  I suggest that this is beginning to inform public thinking, and should be systematically countered by Governments.  We all react differently, each with a different cocktail of concerns -

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Try BBC News, the public service website for the best and quickest access to the news, as well as a huge political data resource, the BBC is unbeatable. We must never lose sight of the distinctive qualities, and unique potential, of public service institutions.  I assert that, in spite of present differences with Greg Dyke...


One year ago

Then, as now, this was the countdown to Labour Conference - I marched in Whitehall against the War, before hotfooting it up to Blackpool - I am planning to get to Bournemouth for Monday this year, though still dismayed at the complexities of "security", which are unsettling...

NB  This year, I will not be marching, because of the dominant influence of the SWP in this whole process, as organisers and promoters - strongly as a favour the French strategy of a rapid handover of power, I am not prepared to make common cause with the wreckers of the revolutionary Left. Old distances die hard.

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Special Footnote

I love the online newspapers, which are my access to the world - share them with me - click through to their Homepages from here - we had a visit from three Chinese graduate students from Swansea University - so I have added the English-language China Daily ... and with the awful bombings and crowd stampedes in India, I now offer you the leading English-language paper The Hindu. 

They are all just a click away.

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Recent topics

Building many more houses >>>

Concourses for teenagers >>>

Economies to be responsive >>>

Shareholders are powerless >>>

Keynesianism Re-visited >>>

Broadcasting Reform needed >>>

Treating children as equals >>>

Disperse Downing St power >>>

Byker, Ralph Erskine, and me >>>

Language is the music of the mind >>>

CCTV A ticklish Swansea Case >>>

Writing the Labour Manifesto >>>

The Spin is in the Media...
             ...not in the Message >>>

And read my Big Theory itself, at Multiple Differential Uncertainty...

Or try my snappier and more practical analysis of the Corporations and the Left Coming to Terms

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I enjoy dipping into informed US West Coast chat, always up to the minute, which can be found at www.metafilter.com.


Did you miss last week's copy?

Check it out

 

     

barren socialist perception

Just in time for the Bournemouth Conference, Alan Milburn re-surfaces with a think-piece about New Labour, in the Guardian.  Sadly, he only demonstrates the barren socialist ground which Blairism has become.  There's plenty about the inaccessible abstraction which he calls "fairness", deftly replacing "equality" in his socialist firmament.  But nothing about Labour acting to strengthen each individual - in Place of Fear..


Is it a bird?  Is it a loan?  Is it a Pertax?

Warning!  I think I may be shifting my position, on University Top-up Fees!  My hunch is that Gordon Brown is being very subtle indeed...

I favour, you may recall, a Graduate Tax, levied on all future graduates, by way of percentage premium on their primary income-tax liability.  That was Charles Clarke’s initial preference.  And I reckon that what is emerging is indeed a subtle new form of Graduate Tax, without the redistributive element.

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Wanted! 
New Model of the UK

What is your "model" of the UK?  How do you configure your own "nation state", in your mind? In business, one talks about a "business model", as a means of describing how a trading system operates, or is planned to operate - the language comes from psychology, more particularly epistemology ("the theory of knowledge").

Government actions such as the recent threat to limit LA taxation presuppose a model - of the economy, the polity and the society - which subtly informs all thinking.  It is vital that that model is "correct" - otherwise, the wrong policy conclusions will flow.  We should debate that model, openly.

  • The Irish timetable has defeated me - I'm working on my own model, to see whether you agree.

Hazy, on your
Direct Debits?

We pay over £160m every year, by way of out-of-date Direct Debits, reports online Bank Cahoot.  I checked mine recently, and found that I was still paying £42 per month, on out of date commitments!  £500 a year!  No wonder organisers love us to pay by Direct Debit!  When did you last check yours?

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Mounting anxiety 
a real political challenge

Subtlety is needed, in the drive to deliver "reassurance" to our people.  I have no doubt that Jackie Ashley (writing in The Guardian) is right: there is at large a mounting sense of anxiety and fear which is unsettling our lives.  "Much of the developing Labour agenda for the next few years," she says, "seems designed to reassure insecure voters that the Government has a grip (on the situation)". 

And so it should.  Countering anxiety is a key function of modern government.  The methodology however is complex, and indirect - see my essay Multiple Differential Uncertainty.


Rawnsley is wrong

I admire and enjoy the writing of Andrew Rawnsley - and often share his judgments.  But not this time.  He contends that if only Tony Blair had based his February War Case openly on the objective of "regime change", he would have carried Parliament and the public with him. 

Rawnsley is, I think, wrong in that contention: such a case would have provoked a public outcry.  Blair understood that correctly.  And Rawnsley misses the point that Mr Blair the Barrister needed above all a rationale for lawful war - he was hoist at his own professional petard - and the "imminent threat" assertion was -

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Abdroids in the family

This weekend, this sketch is striking terror into tens of thousands of UK small-business households.  Clever accountants have over the years devised a myriad schemes of tax avoidance, based on this sketch.  They have introduced, into the lives of ordinary business families, the abdroid - or "artificial personality" - that's the dotted circle. 

Now, the Inland Revenue (who are very clever people, as University Challenge has conclusively proved...) has refused to accept the sophistries of the accountancy profession, and the Revenue is unpicking their tax avoidance schemes.  Is the Revenue rolling back the advance of the abdroids?


Which way is "Left"?

Tony Blair is said to have denounced a "Labour Government of the Left" as a delusion, in his approach to the TUC at Brighton.  But which way is Left?  In my view, the path to political success now lies in devising key socialist strategies which will appeal to everyone, including the English middle-classes. The trade unions are the ones trapped in the old politics, without socialist perceptions.  They are certainly not on the Left.

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Compulsory ID Cards

Blunkett's HR blind spots extend to his repeated attempts to weaken civil liberties by introducing ID Cards - and all the opportunities for gratuitous Police oppression that they create. The current drive is, I think, the fourth attempt by the Blunkett Home Office to perpetrate this gross illiberality.  On this, we should not simply "follow the Continent" - where civil liberties are generally less well understood, and Police regimes far more autocratic.

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Vive la Commune!

In October, I will set out for Brittany, seeking to negotiate new communal relations with the commune of Hennebont, near Lorient.  The 36,000 communes of France are a glory of that great country.  And those communes have powers of independent initiative which would make the eyes water, of every UK Parish, Town or Community Council...


Welcome back to Steve Bell! He has re-joined The Guardian team after his hols, and his wit and perception will again illuminate the absurdities of the political scene...

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Are you a C-Driver?

For at least five years, I have been wrestling with the problem of aggressive, un-cooperative driving.  And not just my own - everybody's.  I have not come up with any solution.  Our roads are unpleasant and dangerous places simply because they are an amoral universe.  In spite of the Highway Code, conflict is endemic, confrontational driving is rife, few drivers evince any consideration for each other.

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My diary

Now up to date (well, more or less...) 
I have re-structured my Diary to give you a day-to-day means of looking back to January 2002 -
just click through

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Week 39  Sunday
28 September 2003

 

 

 

 

     
 

 
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