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916   28 January 2004   

Understanding “Risk”

I am concerned.  I am worried that, as an educated and informed citizen, I simply do not understand the language of “risk”, which now peppers our public affairs.  If it means nothing to me, how can it carry significance in our broader public discourse?  Is it bluff?   Is it a cover for something more sinister, more oppressive?  

I am told that the use of a given chemical, for example, “doubles the risk of cancer”, when that rise might be from 1:1,000,000 to 2: 1,000,000”.   How can I ever use such information – is it not useless?    

These strange statements come thick and fast.  The pantomime “war on terrorism” is now generating its own new language of “risk”.  On another front, the FT recently reported that, according to the new 2003 British Crime Survey - 

“…the risk of being a victim of crime was 27%,
about the same as in 1981”.

What does this mean?  What is the total, of which “27” is a percentage?  Does it describe the ratio of victims to the general population?  Are victims who are over-60 related to the total universe of over-60s?  Are children under-10 related to all children under-10? 

I am deeply sceptical, indeed suspicious, about the motives of those who peddle this form of quantitative risk assessment.  I fear the emergence of a new parasitic profession, that of “Risk Management”.  There is now a UK “Institute of Risk Management”, with its own website

My scepticism does not extend all forms of “risk analysis”.  As a general manager, I have found it most valuable to spend time examining the “systemic risks” to which organisations are exposed: indeed, that practice is becoming a necessary part of a general manager’s toolkit.  But it can be grossly overdone – and I am particularly worried when it used to influence my thinking - and I cannot understand the language myself… 

  • I suspect I am being bamboozled, if not conned.

Is any one of our readers a "Risk Assessment Consultant", who can put this into a better perspective?  Drop me a line

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917  28 January 2003  

Hutton missed the point

After all that effort, all that time and energy, Lord Hutton did not get to the point.  He ought to have concentrated on giving a proper account of David Kelly's death - and that he signally failed to do.

He was in my view right to exonerate the Government. And the BBC were certainly not to blame for Kelly's death, whatever their other shortcomings may have been - although Hutton does not get to the bottom of "the BBC Problem", either.  Nor was the MoD responsible, whatever the modalities of the public "exposure" - which David Kelly knew would happen, and which evidently did not unduly disturb him.  Nor was the frightful spat between Downing Street and the BBC even a contributing factor to his death.

The truth is that David Kelly died at his own hand because he could not live with what he had himself done, instigated.  With the Gilligan interview, he had clearly breached his own conditions of employment, in the most dramatic manner, and not for the first time.  Lord Hutton proposes no explanation of that.  Kelly was clearly an anguished and worried man - and a number of personal, family and possibly religious reasons have been assigned for this.  I suspect that a thorough study of those reasons would not have made happy reading for his family.

Lord Hutton was asked to investigate "the circumstances of Dr Kelly's death".  In one sense, Lord Hutton went much further than he need have done (e.g. in "clearing" John Scarlett).  And he was unduly harsh on the BBC, who had nothing whatever to do with Dr Kelly's death.  And yet he threw very little light on what really drove this distinguished scientist to take his own life.  Indeed, in several respects, I find his perceptions of Kelly shallow and inadequate.

  • No doubt someone, somewhere is already working on The Life and Death of Dr David Kelly.  I will certainly read it, when it is published - in the hope it will tell me much more than Lord Hutton has been able to do.

What is your "take" on all these issues?  Drop me a line

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