House Price Forecast
Greater precision called for

You have called for greater precision in my forecast of what will happen when the housing bubble bursts. In that forecast, I said -

• "I cannot imagine house-prices falling to a plateau-level
  more than 10% below mid-2002 levels."

A reader has challenged me to be more precise, so that the accuracy of my forecasting can be verified.  That is a tall order.  But I have used the Hometrack analysis of the full year 2002, to identify my "plateau level" - which is in my view a worst-case scenario. Hometrack are a Web-based service which you can verify.  I cannot do more than use Hometrack's county-based averages.  Using those figures, this is what my forecast means - disregarding the world of central London and the City, which is a mad, mad market dancing to quite different international tunes ... I also disregard "monetary" inflation, which will not a perceptible feature, over the coming two years.  These are therefore my figures for the Hometrack County averages below which the housing markets will not fall...

• Surrey                    £211,000 
• London North          £194,000 
• Buckinghamshire    £170,000
• London East           £142,000 
• Hampshire              £141,000 
• Gloucestershire       £137,000
• Kent                       £125,000
• Norfolk                      £97,000
• Cumbria                    £83,000
• Birmingham               £81,000
• Greater Manchester   £78,000
• South Wales             £71,000
• Tyne & Wear             £67,000
• Merseyside               £58,000
• Teesside                   £55,000

As 2003 proceeds, spare to moment to compare this with events, as they unfold - check out the position with Hometrack.

And if you find I am inaccurate -  Drop me a line

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