Crunch Year, for Wales

I ask y'all to remember that this is Election Year, for Wales.  Thursday 8 May 2003 will be the key Welsh Assembly Elections, which will be the electorate's first verdict on the practicalities of devolution.  They will be Wales' first real General Election.  To allow full concentration upon this Election, Council elections have been postponed until May 2004.

Two factors favour Labour. 

• First, the Welsh electorate are clearly in favour of devolution, if not full self-government.  In 1997, a large minority of 40% favoured "direct rule" from Westminster, and the Devolution referendum was only won by a whisker.  Now, only 23% favour direct-rule - that is a very important change indeed.  And support for a full legislative Assembly has doubled in the last five years, rising to 39% of the electorate.  It is true that these positive results are matched by low levels of public understanding and information about the workings of the Assembly, but that may prove less important than the overall "sentiment".  Devolution is here to say.
• Secondly, First Minister Rhodri Morgan has succeeded in carving out a distinctive Welsh socialist position, which (as he recently claimed) puts "clear red water" between Cardiff Bay and Westminster.  On secondary schooling (affirming the primacy of the neighbourhood comprehensive), on primary education (abolishing League Tables and the early SATS), on free public transport for pensioners, on foundation hospitals, the Welsh Cabinet has successfully established distinctive Welsh socialist positions.  They will stand the Party in good stead in May.

Labour's Achilles Heel will be the condition and performance of local government in Wales, which still constitutes the outward face of Labour, for the majority of the electorate.  As it is throughout the UK, local government is in decline, its public authority weakened by the 2000 Local Government Act, and its morale sapped by the Audit Commission.  Labour will not escape electoral punishment for its failure to propose effective reform measures.

As at Westminster, Labour in Cardiff Bay has benefited from a weak Opposition.  Having entered into a coalition with the LibDems (who are stronger in Welsh sentiment than their poor electoral showing would indicate), and facing a Plaid Cymru crippled by the resignation of Dafydd Wigley, coupled with a Tory Party crippled by the failure of Nicholas Bourne to resign, Labour enter the Elections as favourites to win an outright majority. 

• That must be Labour's primary objective, and I will be doing everything that I can to achieve it.