The Case for a new Local Democratic Order

by Roger Warren Evans  1996

part of "Building a New Britain"
an alternative approach to devolution and local governance. 
Published by the City Region Campaign                                                 Page 5

Pages One - Two - Three - Four - Five - Six - Seven

What do the statistics say?

The Coombes Report represents only one view of how the new regions should be defined.  The work of the Boundary Commission would examine a range of other considerations, some highly specific to place and history  - but the Coombes analysis would providce a robust statistical starting-point for the definition process.  There is a distinction to be drawn, in the Coombes Report, between the "raw" statistical data and its "best fit" analysis.  The initial reform process should leave District boundaries unchanged, whether they have been the subject of unitarisation or not: the Boundary Commission would merely assign each District to its most appropriate Region, using a best-fit approach; and that is what the Coombes Report also does. 

District adjustments

For example, some parts of the District of West Devon clearly relate to Plymouth, others to Exeter;  parts of Western Dorset relate to Taunton, others to Bournemouth;  the northern parts of the Derbyshire Dales look to the Manchester city region, while the southern parts look to Derby in the South; and in Powys, it must be arguable that the southern sector of the unitary authority should join one of the two South Wales regions.  But those exceptions are few in number, and we argue that the priority at this stage lies with accepting the District boundaries, new and old, and leaving them undisturbed.  Over the years, those issues could be re-visited, as the regional authority framework would permit greater flexibility in due course in the detemination of District boundaries.

Cities confirmed

Many of our established cities, both large and small, are confirmed by the Coombes Report as the natural focal points of their related journey-to-work networks; others turn out to have commuting catchments far beyond their conventional boundaries.  The Coventry Region (No 22) for example (pop 738k) would form a viable city region quite independent from its powerful neighbour Birmingham.  The Birmingham Region (No 23) would in its turn incorporate both Tamworth to the North-East and Worcester and Malvern to the South-West, to form a major city region of 1,897m population.  That Region would in its turn be differentiated from the Black Country Region (No 24, centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley), with its 1.4m population.  Thus the Coombes journey-to-work analysis departs significantly from the boundaries of the former West Midlands Metropolitan County.

In East Anglia, Norwich (No 18) emerges at the heart of a distinct city region (746k), whereas Ipswich would more naturally combine with Colchester and Chelmsford, in the largest of seven "London radial" regions, with 1.789m population, strongly oriented towards the Continent. Many familiar English cities and city regions are unambiguously confirmed by the Coombes analysis - Northampton (No 20/ pop 595k), Leicester (No 21/ pop 834k), Nottingham (No 28/ pop 820k), Derby (No 27/ pop 556k), Peterborough (No 19/ pop 518k), Lincoln (No 29/ pop 734k), Carlisle-Cumbria (No 41/ pop 490k), Plymouth (No 1/ pop 859k), Exeter (No 2/ pop 671k), Taunton (No 3/ pop 477k), Bournemouth (No 4/ pop 783k), Gloucester (No 13/ pop 696k), Bristol (No 12/ pop 814k), Southampton (No 5/ pop 1.016m), Portsmouth/IoW (No 6/ pop 650k), Stoke-on-Trent (No 26/ pop 679k), Newcastle (No 43/ pop 988k), Durham (No 42/ pop 960k), Teesside (No 40/ pop 790k), Liverpool (No 34/ pop 1.363m), and Manchester (No 32/ pop 2.749m).   Manchester calls for special comment, for its brings together Bolton and Burnley in the North with Macclesfield and high Peak in the South: it constitutes a powerful city region, albeit without current political expression.

Unexpected conclusions

In other respects, the Coombes analysis points to combinations which may be considered less conventional.  Bath does not coalesce with Bristol, as superficial observation might suppose: Bath's commuting links are stronger to the East, and a Bath/Swindon is suggested (No 11/ pop 641k) bringing in their respectful rural catchments.  Bradford emerges with its own city region (No 38) with a 727k population, independent of its powerful neighbour Leeds (No 37/ pop 1.114m), as does the more southerly combination of Wakefield, Barnsley and Huddersfield (No 35) with a distinct population of 931k.  A distinct and separate urban region (No 33) is suggested, lying between Manchester and Liverpool, stretching from Chester through Warrington to Wigan, with a substantial population of 1.119m, distinct in commuting terms from its substantial neighbours: the Boundary Commission would ensure that such a region would be practicable, in governmental terms.  The Lancaster-Blackpool-Preston combination constitutes a distinctive regional entity (No 39).  And a distinct "marcher" region is indicated (No 25), with Shrewsbury at its centre and stretching from Crewe to the North to Bridgnorth in the South.

London and its Regions

The Coombes Report explains too the force of the analysis which generates seven London-oriented "radial regions" -

• No 7           Mid-Surrey/Mid-Sussex               1.519m
• No 8           Kent                                           1.715m
• No 17         Essex/Suffolk                              1.789m
• No 16         E Herts/Cambridge                      1.018m
• No 15         Luton/Milton Keynes                    1.494m
• No 14         Oxford/South Bucks                      .908m
• No 10         Reading/Guildford                       1.637m

English regional analyses have often foundered on the difficulties of tackling "London and the South-East".  The Coombs Report propounds a solution which conforms with common sense, and could form the basis both of coherent regions and of a South-Eastern provincial Authority, if the demand were expressed.

Scotland

For Scotland, the Coombes analysis confirms conventional perceptions of the Edinburgh and Glasgow city regions, as well as the distinctive spheres of influence of Scotland's highland urban systems.  Scottish commentators highlight the importance of those regional systems within Scotland, reflected in the organisation of the Scottish Press; and the Coombes Report underlines their profiles.  We recognise that any regional reform might have to take account of quite different devolution arrangements, if they had been separately enacted in the meantime: the principles here outlined should nevertheless inform (we argue) the internal arrangements of a Scottish Parliament.  The powerful Glasgow city region (No 49/ pop 1.819m) rivals Manchester.  The Edinburgh city region (No 48/ pop 902k) is only half the size of Glasgow, and it is matched by the Dundee-centred region (No 50/ pop 878k). The statistics suggest a large "Borders" region (No 47/ pop 631k), coupled with two smaller Highland regions, namely Aberdeen (No 51/ pop 469k, if including the Shetlands), and the Highlands and Islands (No. 52/ pop 435k). 

Wales

For Wales, a strong South-East Wales is confirmed (No 44/ pop 1.281m) combining Cardiff, Newport and the whole of Gwent.  Swansea and South-West Wales forms a distinctive region (No 45) with a population of 854k, including Bridgend, which has stronger commuting links with the West than the East; the Carmarthen-oriented south of the former county of Dyfed is confirmed as part of the South West Wales region, while Cardigan looks to the communities of central Wales.  Mid and North Wales would constitute a single region (No 46) with a substantial population of 778k, incorporation most of Wales' Welsh-speaking communities.

And finally, we advocate new "Provinces"  >>  More